Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate drifted into Brexit and the same could occur with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is ready.
That represents the warning from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gather momentum rapidly," O’Toole said. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Aims to Encourage Dialogue
The team have studied the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a national vote on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the people who have won lack clarity precisely what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unification if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is imminent, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity when or if there will be a referendum.
Lack of Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of serious debate, said the journalist.
"People tend to be for or against the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any politicians or campaigners seek to involve themselves with the basics. As an example, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, no writer advocates unity or the existing arrangement. They composes two articles that seek objectivity in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, gathering financial and social statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," said O’Toole. "Discussion suggests an acceptance of the notion that there could be valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters report they favour unity but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a new flag to recognise pro-UK communities' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
McBride believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, valid arguments, he said. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will ultimately be defeated but each side has has valuable insights to learn from the opposing viewpoints."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should join the dialogue, urged O’Toole. "This involves the United Kingdom. It's a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
